2026 college football · FBS
Week 6: model vs. market
58 games. The model line is the average of four public power ratings, compared with the median spread across U.S. sportsbooks. Model published Sun Oct 4; market last updated Fri Oct 9, 10:45 AM ET.
Games with a 3+ point edge
10
vs. current market
Lines moved toward the model
22 of 42
since Sunday's snapshot
Season against the spread
147–125–6
54.0% · break-even 52.4%
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Market | Model | Model edge | Since Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final 34–55 ✕ Loss | Southern Miss at Troy | Troy −10.5 | Troy −8.7 | Southern Miss +10.51.8 | No change Sunday: Troy −10.5 |
| Final 27–26 ✓ Win | Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State −4.5 | Jacksonville State −2.7 | Kennesaw State +4.51.8 | 1.5 toward Jacksonville State against Sunday: Jacksonville State −3 |
| Final 3–22 ✕ Loss | New Mexico State at FIU | FIU −7 | FIU −5.4 | New Mexico State +71.6 | 1.5 toward FIU against Sunday: FIU −5.5 |
| Final 3–35 ✓ Win | Sam Houston at Liberty | Liberty −13.5 | Liberty −14.2 | Liberty −13.50.7 | No change Sunday: Liberty −13.5 |
| Final 13–34 ✓ Win | Missouri State at Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky −1.5 | Western Kentucky −2.9 | Western Kentucky −1.51.4 | 1 toward Missouri State against Sunday: Western Kentucky −2.5 |
| Final 56–49 ✕ Loss | South Alabama at Arkansas State | Arkansas State −2.5 | Arkansas State −2.5 | South Alabama +2.50.1 | 1.5 toward Arkansas State ✓ with model Sunday: Arkansas State −1 |
| Final 24–31 Push | South Florida at UTSA | UTSA −7 | UTSA −4.6 | South Florida +72.4 | No change Sunday: UTSA −7 |
| Fri 7:00 PM | Florida State at Louisville | Louisville −3.5 | Louisville −3.1 | Florida State +3.50.4 | 2 toward Florida State ✓ with model Sunday: Louisville −5.5 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | Iowa at Washington | Washington −2.5 | Iowa −0.6 | Iowa +2.53.1 | No change Sunday: Washington −2.5 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | Wyoming at San Jose State | San Jose State −4.5 | San Jose State −5.4 | San Jose State −4.50.9 | 2 toward Wyoming ✓ with model Sunday: San Jose State −6.5 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | Washington State at Utah State | Utah State −5.5 | Utah State −1.8 | Washington State +5.53.7 | 1.5 toward Utah State against Sunday: Utah State −4 |
| Fri 10:15 PM | Iowa State at BYU | BYU −10.5 | BYU −10.9 | BYU −10.50.4 | 0.5 toward Iowa State ✓ with model Sunday: BYU −11 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Arizona at West Virginia | Arizona −3 | Arizona −6.5 | Arizona −33.5 | 0.5 toward Arizona ✓ with model Sunday: Arizona −2.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Tulane at Army | Army −3 | Army −3.6 | Army −30.6 | 0.5 toward Tulane against Sunday: Army −3.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Sacramento State at Bowling Green | Bowling Green −8.5 | Bowling Green −8.3 | Sacramento State +8.50.2 | 1.5 toward Bowling Green ✓ with model Sunday: Bowling Green −7 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Indiana at Nebraska | Indiana −7.5 | Indiana −8.1 | Indiana −7.50.6 | 1 toward Nebraska ✓ with model Sunday: Indiana −8.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Texas A&M at Missouri | Missouri −3.5 | Missouri −2.4 | Texas A&M +3.51.1 | 1 toward Texas A&M ✓ with model Sunday: Missouri −4.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest −3.5 | Wake Forest −2.6 | NC State +3.50.9 | No change Sunday: Wake Forest −3.5 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh −3.5 | Pittsburgh −9.3 | Pittsburgh −3.55.8 | 0.5 toward North Carolina against Sunday: Pittsburgh −4 |
| Sat 12:00 PM | UCF at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State −10.5 | Oklahoma State −3.4 | UCF +10.57.1 | 1 toward Oklahoma State against Sunday: Oklahoma State −9.5 |
| Sat 12:30 PM | Ball State at Northwestern | Northwestern −35.5 | Northwestern −37.2 | Northwestern −35.51.7 | No change Sunday: Northwestern −35.5 |
| Sat 12:45 PM | South Carolina at Florida | Florida −11.5 | Florida −9.5 | South Carolina +11.52.0 | 2.5 toward South Carolina ✓ with model Sunday: Florida −14 |
| Sat 1:00 PM | Old Dominion at Appalachian State | Appalachian State −9.5 | Appalachian State −7.2 | Old Dominion +9.52.3 | No change Sunday: Appalachian State −9.5 |
| Sat 2:00 PM | Miami (OH) at UMass | Miami (OH) −2.5 | Miami (OH) −4.8 | Miami (OH) −2.52.3 | No change Sunday: Miami (OH) −2.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Eastern Michigan at Akron | Eastern Michigan −6.5 | Eastern Michigan −5.2 | Akron +6.51.2 | No change Sunday: Eastern Michigan −6.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Buffalo at Toledo | Toledo −20.5 | Toledo −19.6 | Buffalo +20.50.9 | 1 toward Toledo ✓ with model Sunday: Toledo −19.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Virginia Tech at California | Virginia Tech −10 | Virginia Tech −8.7 | California +101.3 | 0.5 toward Virginia Tech against Sunday: Virginia Tech −9.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Central Michigan at Ohio | Ohio −3 | Ohio −5.6 | Ohio −32.6 | 0.5 toward Central Michigan against Sunday: Ohio −3.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Charlotte at North Texas | North Texas −28.5 | North Texas −26.3 | Charlotte +28.52.2 | 1.25 toward North Texas against Sunday: North Texas −27.25 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Duke at Georgia Tech | Duke −6.5 | Duke −5.5 | Georgia Tech +6.51.0 | 0.5 toward Georgia Tech ✓ with model Sunday: Duke −7 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Houston at Kansas State | Kansas State −2.5 | Kansas State −1.7 | Houston +2.50.8 | No change Sunday: Kansas State −2.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Illinois at Michigan State | Illinois −2.5 | Illinois −2.8 | Illinois −2.50.3 | 1 toward Michigan State ✓ with model Sunday: Illinois −3.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Kent State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan −14 | Western Michigan −14.5 | Western Michigan −140.5 | No change Sunday: Western Michigan −14 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Tulsa at Navy | Navy −1.5 | Navy −2.9 | Navy −1.51.4 | 1 toward Tulsa against Sunday: Navy −2.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Stanford at Notre Dame | Notre Dame −38.75 | Notre Dame −36.7 | Stanford +38.752.1 | 1.25 toward Notre Dame against Sunday: Notre Dame −37.5 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Texas vs Oklahoma neutral | Texas −7.5 | Texas −10.3 | Texas −7.52.8 | 0.5 toward Texas ✓ with model Sunday: Texas −7 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Ole Miss −9.5 | Ole Miss −5.9 | Vanderbilt +9.53.6 | 0.5 toward Vanderbilt ✓ with model Sunday: Ole Miss −10 |
| Sat 3:30 PM | UCLA at Oregon | Oregon −11.5 | Oregon −11.7 | Oregon −11.50.2 | 0.5 toward Oregon ✓ with model Sunday: Oregon −11 |
| Sat 3:45 PM | UConn at Temple | Temple −3.5 | Temple −2.2 | UConn +3.51.3 | No change Sunday: Temple −3.5 |
| Sat 4:00 PM | Rice at East Carolina | East Carolina −10 | East Carolina −10 | Rice +100.0 | 0.5 toward East Carolina ✓ with model Sunday: East Carolina −9.5 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Tennessee at Arkansas | Tennessee −13.5 | Tennessee −14.7 | Tennessee −13.51.2 | No change Sunday: Tennessee −13.5 |
| Sat 4:15 PM | Maryland at Ohio State | Ohio State −33 | Ohio State −30.8 | Maryland +332.2 | 2 toward Maryland ✓ with model Sunday: Ohio State −35 |
| Sat 6:00 PM | San Diego State at Oregon State | Oregon State −15.5 | Oregon State −11.4 | San Diego State +15.54.1 | 2 toward Oregon State against Sunday: Oregon State −13.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | Marshall −4 | Marshall −2.2 | Coastal Carolina +41.8 | 1.5 toward Marshall against Sunday: Marshall −2.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | LSU at Kentucky | LSU −8.5 | LSU −8.8 | LSU −8.50.3 | 1 toward Kentucky ✓ with model Sunday: LSU −9.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | UAB at Memphis | Memphis −14 | Memphis −17.2 | Memphis −143.2 | 0.5 toward UAB against Sunday: Memphis −14.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | Nevada at UTEP | Nevada −10 | Nevada −8.8 | UTEP +101.2 | 0.5 toward Nevada against Sunday: Nevada −9.5 |
| Sat 7:00 PM | North Dakota State at UNLV | North Dakota State −3 | North Dakota State −3.7 | North Dakota State −30.7 | No change Sunday: North Dakota State −3 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Air Force at Northern Illinois | Air Force −7.5 | Air Force −12.2 | Air Force −7.54.8 | 4 toward Northern Illinois against Sunday: Air Force −11.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Georgia at Alabama | Alabama −1.5 | Alabama −0.1 | Georgia +1.51.4 | 0.5 toward Alabama against Sunday: Alabama −1 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | James Madison at Georgia Southern | James Madison −7.5 | James Madison −11.9 | James Madison −7.54.4 | 1 toward Georgia Southern against Sunday: James Madison −8.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Louisiana at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech −3 | Louisiana Tech −1.4 | Louisiana +31.6 | 0.5 toward Louisiana Tech against Sunday: Louisiana Tech −2.5 |
| Sat 7:30 PM | USC at Penn State | Penn State −1.5 | Penn State −1.9 | Penn State −1.50.4 | 1.5 toward Penn State ✓ with model Sunday: Pick'em |
| Sat 7:30 PM | Syracuse at Virginia | Virginia −9.5 | Virginia −10 | Virginia −9.50.5 | 1 toward Virginia ✓ with model Sunday: Virginia −8.5 |
| Sat 8:00 PM | Minnesota at Purdue | Minnesota −2.5 | Minnesota −4.8 | Minnesota −2.52.2 | No change Sunday: Minnesota −2.5 |
| Sat 10:15 PM | Kansas at Utah | Utah −15.5 | Utah −15.4 | Kansas +15.50.1 | 0.5 toward Utah ✓ with model Sunday: Utah −15 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Hawai’i at Arizona State | Arizona State −20.5 | Arizona State −20.2 | Hawai’i +20.50.3 | 1 toward Hawai’i ✓ with model Sunday: Arizona State −21.5 |
| Sat 10:30 PM | Boise State at Fresno State | Boise State −6.5 | Boise State −5.6 | Fresno State +6.50.9 | No change Sunday: Boise State −6.5 |
Model edge = model line minus current market line, shown as the side the model prefers with that side's current spread, and the size of the gap in points. The season record grades each pick against Sunday's line. Lines shown from the favorite's side; "neutral" marks neutral-site games (no home-field value).