Week 6
Win probability: model vs. Kalshi
Each game's model line converted to a win probability, next to the price on Kalshi's prediction market. Sorted by the biggest disagreement.
| Game | Kalshi favorite | Kalshi | Model | Model rates higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | 80% | 58% | UCF +21 pts |
| Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | 76% | 64% | Vanderbilt +12 pts |
| Washington State at Utah State | Utah State | 66% | 54% | Washington State +11 pts |
| San Diego State at Oregon State | Oregon State | 86% | 75% | San Diego State +11 pts |
| South Florida at UTSA | UTSA | 72% | 61% | South Florida +10 pts |
| Old Dominion at Appalachian State | Appalachian State | 77% | 67% | Old Dominion +10 pts |
| South Carolina at Florida | Florida | 80% | 72% | South Carolina +9 pts |
| North Carolina at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 62% | 71% | Pittsburgh +9 pts |
| Iowa at Washington | Washington | 57% | 49% | Iowa +8 pts |
| Southern Miss at Troy | Troy | 78% | 70% | Southern Miss +8 pts |
| UConn at Temple | Temple | 62% | 55% | UConn +7 pts |
| Coastal Carolina at Marshall | Marshall | 62% | 55% | Coastal Carolina +7 pts |
| Miami (OH) at UMass | Miami (OH) | 54% | 61% | Miami (OH) +7 pts |
| Minnesota at Purdue | Minnesota | 54% | 61% | Minnesota +7 pts |
| Boise State at Fresno State | Boise State | 70% | 63% | Fresno State +7 pts |
| Eastern Michigan at Akron | Eastern Michigan | 69% | 63% | Akron +7 pts |
| Virginia Tech at California | Virginia Tech | 76% | 70% | California +7 pts |
| Duke at Georgia Tech | Duke | 70% | 63% | Georgia Tech +6 pts |
| Nevada at UTEP | Nevada | 76% | 70% | UTEP +6 pts |
| Hawai’i at Arizona State | Arizona State | 92% | 87% | Hawai’i +6 pts |
| Central Michigan at Ohio | Ohio | 57% | 63% | Ohio +6 pts |
| Arizona at West Virginia | Arizona | 60% | 65% | Arizona +6 pts |
| Maryland at Ohio State | Ohio State | 100% | 94% | Maryland +6 pts |
| Buffalo at Toledo | Toledo | 92% | 86% | Buffalo +6 pts |
| Kansas at Utah | Utah | 86% | 81% | Kansas +5 pts |
| Texas A&M at Missouri | Missouri | 61% | 56% | Texas A&M +5 pts |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest | 62% | 56% | NC State +5 pts |
| Charlotte at North Texas | North Texas | 96% | 91% | Charlotte +5 pts |
| Rice at East Carolina | East Carolina | 78% | 72% | Rice +5 pts |
| Indiana at Nebraska | Indiana | 74% | 69% | Nebraska +5 pts |
| Iowa State at BYU | BYU | 79% | 74% | Iowa State +5 pts |
| Louisiana at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | 57% | 53% | Louisiana +4 pts |
| LSU at Kentucky | LSU | 74% | 70% | Kentucky +4 pts |
| Sam Houston at Liberty | Liberty | 84% | 79% | Sam Houston +4 pts |
| UCLA at Oregon | Oregon | 80% | 75% | UCLA +4 pts |
| Florida State at Louisville | Louisville | 62% | 57% | Florida State +4 pts |
| Syracuse at Virginia | Virginia | 76% | 72% | Syracuse +4 pts |
| South Alabama at Arkansas State | Arkansas State | 52% | 56% | Arkansas State +4 pts |
| Kent State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan | 84% | 80% | Kent State +4 pts |
| Stanford at Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 100% | 96% | Stanford +3 pts |
| Sacramento State at Bowling Green | Bowling Green | 72% | 69% | Sacramento State +3 pts |
| Georgia at Alabama | Alabama | 54% | 50% | Georgia +3 pts |
| Tennessee at Arkansas | Tennessee | 83% | 80% | Arkansas +3 pts |
| Air Force at Northern Illinois | Air Force | 74% | 76% | Air Force +3 pts |
| Tulsa at Navy | Navy | 54% | 57% | Navy +3 pts |
| Missouri State at Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 54% | 57% | Western Kentucky +3 pts |
| New Mexico State at FIU | FIU | 66% | 63% | New Mexico State +3 pts |
| James Madison at Georgia Southern | James Madison | 74% | 76% | James Madison +2 pts |
| Ball State at Northwestern | Northwestern | 99% | 96% | Ball State +2 pts |
| USC at Penn State | Penn State | 52% | 54% | Penn State +2 pts |
| Tulane at Army | Army | 60% | 59% | Tulane +2 pts |
| Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State | 58% | 56% | Kennesaw State +2 pts |
| UAB at Memphis | Memphis | 84% | 83% | UAB +1 pts |
| Wyoming at San Jose State | San Jose State | 64% | 63% | Wyoming +1 pts |
| Texas vs Oklahoma | Texas | 74% | 73% | Oklahoma +1 pts |
| North Dakota State at UNLV | North Dakota State | 60% | 59% | UNLV +1 pts |
| Houston at Kansas State | Kansas State | 55% | 54% | Houston +0 pts |
| Illinois at Michigan State | Illinois | 56% | 57% | Illinois +0 pts |
All probabilities are shown for Kalshi's favorite. Model and market-spread probabilities use the Winston formula, P = 0.5 + 0.5 × (1 − e−0.0454·|S|1.12), where S is the projected margin. The formula is more conservative than prediction markets on big favorites, so compare the "Market spread" column with Kalshi to see how much of a gap is the formula itself rather than the model. Kalshi = midpoint of the bid and ask, normalized across both teams; "thin" marks a wide bid/ask spread.